Hield performed admirably on offense for Indiana post-trade, but what should the franchise do with him this season?
The Sacramento Kings were at an interesting spot a season ago. (They still are, for the record.) Their star player, De'Aaron Fox, was producing but the talent around him — both in the coaching ranks and on the floor — wasn't nearly good enough to make the team anything close to a contender. Pressure for the organization to make something happen mounted, and that something came in the form of a six-player trade with the Indiana Pacers in February of this year.
At the time of the trade, Fox was flanked by then-rookie Tyrese Haliburton and veteran sharpshooter Buddy Hield. That trio seemed to be fine on paper, but its on-court fit simply left quite a bit to be desired. Haliburton was believed back then to be a ball-dominant point guard incapable of playing in a complementary role, and Hield was underperforming on a somewhat sizable contract. In 55 games with the Kings last year, Hield was averaging just 14.4 points per game on under 40% shooting from the field. His scoring and assist totals were his worst since 2017, and his shooting percentage was the lowest of his career. While it stands to reason that Haliburton and Fox could have found a way to work together, splitting up that duo allowed both players to truly flourish. It allowed Hield to thrive, too.
After being sent to the Pacers in the Kings' package that netted Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday and Jeremy Lamb in return, Hield's scoring efficiency skyrocketed. In 26 games with Indiana last season, Hield averaged 18.2 points per contest while converting on 45% of his shots from the field, 36% of his three-point attempts and 89% of his trips to the free throw line. He did all of that while knocking down 52% of his midrange shot attempts and 39% of his catch-and-shoot tries from deep. After the All-Star break, his true shooting percentage rose from 54.8% to 56.1% and his net rating improved from -3.6 to -2.2. By multiple accounts, from a scoring standpoint, the addition of Hield proved to help the Pacers.
An unexpected byproduct of an increased role and a seemingly increased belief from the organization putting him on the court every night: Hield's playmaking production soared to new heights as well. In that aforementioned 26-game sample size In Indiana, Hield averaged 4.8 assists per game. That figure, extrapolated out to a full season, would've comfortably cleared his previous career-high of 3.6 (set back in 2020). He also experienced increases in assist percentage (13.5 to 18.9) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.50 to 1.86) despite posting strikingly similar usage rates (21.4% to 21.6%) after the break. Despite all of this, the Pacers find themselves having a Hield conundrum on their hands. None of the analysis or data above sounds bad, though, so where does the aforementioned "conundrum" come from?
There are a couple of answers, and the first one is defense.
Hield and defense often don't go together, unless you're referring to defensive rebounding. In that case, Hield's help on the boards was a plus for Indiana post-trade. This has been the case for a while now, as his 2020-21 season was one of the worst in NBA history from a defensive rating standpoint. Statistics such as defensive rating don't tell the whole story, but when Hield's 118 figure in Indiana would've trailed only his 2020 one as the worst of his career and his -2.2 defensive box plus-minus as a Pacer was comfortably the lowest of his NBA tenure, that picture isn't pretty.
Hield does boast a clear positive wingspan and is a competent athlete, but he simply hasn't graded out as even a neutral defender via various statistics nor on film. The former Oklahoma standout offers minimal resistance at the point of attack, isn't great at navigating through screens and doesn't possess an innately high defensive IQ. He's still capable of being an overall positive on the floor when his offensive game is as good as it was with the Pacers but if Indiana wants to compete for a play-in or playoff spot, leaving Hield on the floor late in games could prove to be costly on occasion.
Another reason why this conundrum exists, and this one is mostly out of Hield's control, is personnel. Hield, who is more of a shooting guard by size but has spent time at the small forward spot as well, is competing with multiple other players for playing time. Last year, Hield averaged just under 36 minutes per game on a bad Indiana team with then-rookie Chris Duarte also getting a healthy amount of playing time (28 minutes per contest). Now, not only is Duarte expected to make a second-year leap, but the Pacers took Arizona wing Bennedict Mathurin with pick No. 6 in the 2022 NBA Draft. Mathurin, a shooting guard-small forward hybrid, is a player capable of logging decent minutes in his first year. None of this necessarily means that Hield needs to or will see his minutes docked heavily, but it presents a minor logjam that could see at least a minor deduction from his per-game total.
The final piece of this puzzle: another possible trade. Recent reports indicate that the Los Angeles Lakers, a club that has already expressed interest in making a move for Hield in the past and nearly did so a year ago, could be revisiting that possibility now. With the futures of both Russell Westbrook in LA and Myles Turner in Indiana in question, Hield could be a piece that facilitates that movement in some way, shape or form. If the Pacers value 1) absorbing Westbrook's expiring contract, 2) stockpiling draft assets and 3) prioritizing the development of their youth, then a Hield swap could be in the cards (again). This is far from a certainty of happening, but it's certainly a possibility nonetheless.
Of course, it's also possible that none of this plays a role in the Pacers' decision-making at any level. Perhaps they're big fans of Hield and don't care that his defense is lackluster, that there's another cook in the proverbial wing kitchen or that others teams are on the brink of expressing legitimate interest in their 29-year-old sharpshooter. In year two under head coach Rick Carlisle, Indiana is far away from becoming a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference. Whether Hield remains a part of their process between now and then remains to be seen but if he does, how the franchise manages to strike a balance with its unbalanced player will be worth keeping an eye on.
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